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Barclays Capital forecasts gold price at $1875 per ounce in Q4

Strong physical Gold demand from Asia amidst the backdrop of European debt crisis is expected to average gold prices at around $1875/ounce, says Barclays Capital in a research report. $1600 levels may prove to be a strong support and cushion from which prices might shoot up.

Fundamentals

-Moody’s downgraded Italy’s credit rating from Aa2 to A2. Long-term funding risks in the Euro zone nations have increased. Bullish

-the US September employment report was overall positive and suggest resilience of the US labour market. Bearish

-Bank of England will expand its asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds as part of its market stimulation initiatives. Bullish

-CFTC data for October 3rd shows that speculative positions rose for first time after three weeks of consecutive net reductions. Bullish

-Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia is under strike from Union workers till November 15 causing an irreplaceable output loss of 5Koz per day. The strike, which started on September 15, is estimated to cause a total production loss of 300Koz (around 10 tonnes)

Technical

Gold is expected to trade in a range. Prices may benefit from a general up trend in commodities as risk appetite returns.

Medium term trend is expected to remain bullish. Support $1595/$1580 and Resistance at $1705/$1680

Source: Barclays Capital Commodities Research

Posted by on October 16, 2011. Filed under Precious metals. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

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