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China’s trade surplus will rebound to 23.89 billion U.S. dollars in October after falling for two consecutive months, the First Financial Daily reported Monday.
Most economists said they expect the country’s October trade surplus to be higher than the 14.5 billion U.S. dollars recorded in September, the newspaper said, citing its survey results.
Exports are likely to increase by 16.1 percent, slower than the 17.1-percent growth posted in September, while imports are expected to rise by 21.7 percent, up from September’s 20.9-percent increase, the newspaper said.
China’s export growth will continue to slow over the next few months due to weak global demand, the newspaper quoted Qu Hongbin, HSBC’s chief China economist, as saying.
But Qu said the country’s exports will not witness negative growth, as the current economic turmoil is less severe than the financial crisis in 2009.
Li Daokui, an advisor and member of the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China, said last month that he expects the country’s full-year trade surplus to reach 150-160 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 1.6 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. Li also predicted that the trade surplus will further narrow next year.
China’s trade surplus shrank by 10.6 percent to 107.1 billion U.S. dollars in the first nine months, according to government data. – Xinhua